Santa Monica's 718-person homeless count is the lowest in the LAHSA-administered era. But a RAND Corporation study showing significant undercounts regionwide, combined with unresolved shelter questions locally, raises doubts about whether the decline will last.

The 2026 Point-in-Time Count, released July 24 by the city, found homelessness fell 11.6 percent from 812 people in 2025. Unsheltered numbers dropped 18.7 percent to 389. Vehicle-based homelessness plunged nearly 30 percent, from 84 occupied vehicles to 59, reversing a trend that drove last year's increase.

Mayor Caroline Torosis called it a milestone. "Behind every one of these numbers is a person, and behind this progress is a community that refuses to treat homelessness as inevitable," she said in the city's July 24 press release.

The decline bucks the regional trend.

The City of Los Angeles saw total homelessness rise 3.4 percent to 45,194, and Los Angeles County climbed 1.2 percent to 73,040, according to LAHSA data reported by the Santa Monica Daily Press. Santa Monica's broader Westside service planning area, which includes Malibu, Culver City, Beverly Hills, and Venice, added 147 people to its count even as Santa Monica declined.

The snapshot problem

The Point-in-Time methodology has known limits that complicate the city's optimism. The annual count is a single-night exercise vulnerable to weather, volunteer coverage gaps, and the difficulty of locating people sleeping in vehicles or hidden spots.

A 2025 RAND Corporation study found LAHSA's volunteer-led count fell 32 percent short of RAND's own tally regionwide. On Skid Row, the official count captured just 61 percent of the unsheltered population. RAND also found that rough sleeping without any tent, vehicle, or makeshift structure reached 44 percent of the unsheltered population in surveyed areas, up from 30 percent in 2021, meaning more people are harder to find during a single overnight sweep.

Not every local measure improved, either. Makeshift shelters in Santa Monica rose from 31 to 34, and occupied recreational vehicles increased from 9 to 11, according to Santa Monica Next.

Will the numbers hold?

The durability question centers on SaMoShel, the city's only dedicated shelter for more than three decades. As we reported July 29, the council approved the Palm Motel conversion but delayed SaMoShel's closure until replacement beds are secured. The 60-bed facility at 505 Olympic Blvd. sits near the freeway and away from most housing. Closing it before motel-based replacements prove viable could shift visible homelessness into residential neighborhoods.

Maria Loya, co-chair of the Pico Neighborhood Association, voiced that concern at a July 21 town hall organized by the association and Friends of Sunset Park. "There's a historic pattern where Santa Monica has used Pico as a dumping ground," she told the Santa Monica Mirror.

Housing and Human Services Director Aileen Reynolds acknowledged the stakes in the staff report prepared for the July 28 council vote, writing that maintaining the status quo while the regional system faces defunding would cause local outcomes to suffer.

A new counting method

The city is hedging against the snapshot critique. Beginning in late summer 2026, Santa Monica will partner with RAND to conduct independent unsheltered counts six times a year, between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m., paired with anonymous in-person surveys. RAND will publish quarterly reports.

The bi-monthly counts should give the city and residents a clearer picture of whether July's record low reflects a real trend or a single good night.