Santa Monica's homeless count fell 11.6% this year even as a statewide study points to a policy that may have pushed thousands of Californians onto the streets.

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) reported Friday, Aug. 28 that Proposition 47 likely drove a 10% increase in unsheltered homelessness across California between 2015 and 2019. The 2014 ballot measure lowered certain drug and property crimes from felonies to misdemeanors. PPIC researchers estimate it added roughly 7,000 unsheltered people statewide, about 20% of the total increase during that period, according to U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development figures.

Locally, the picture looks different. Santa Monica's 2026 Point-in-Time Count, released July 25, found 718 people experiencing homelessness, down from 812 in 2025. Unsheltered numbers dropped 18.7%. Those declines bucked the regional trend: homelessness rose 1.2% across Los Angeles County.

PPIC researchers compared California's homelessness trends to states with similar patterns before Prop 47 passed, then measured how California diverged. Counties with larger drops in drug arrests and jail populations after the measure saw bigger increases in both homelessness and overdoses.

The study also found Prop 47 likely increased drug use, measured by overdose deaths and hospitalizations, by 7% to 8%. Court-referred drug treatment fell an estimated 20%.

Lead author Magnus Lofstrom said jails had functioned as a form of shelter. "Jails and prisons, they do serve as a source of shelter for people who are experiencing or are at risk of experiencing homelessness," he said, as reported by the Westside Current.

The researchers acknowledged limitations. California improved its point-in-time counting methods in 2015, which may have inflated the apparent increase. Rents also rose faster in California than in comparison states, and the researchers said that effect could be larger than their models captured.

Critics point to housing costs

Ron Hochbaum, a law professor at the University of the Pacific who directs the Buccola Family Homeless Advocacy Clinic, said the study did not account for how a felony drug charge can block someone from getting a job or qualifying for subsidized housing.

A separate 2023 survey by the UCSF Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative found loss of income, not drug use, was the most common reason people reported for losing their last housing. That survey, described as the largest of unhoused Californians since the 1990s, also found 20% of people who regularly used drugs wanted treatment but could not get it.

Santa Monica's local response

Santa Monica's City Council approved a Housing Focused System of Care in early August, giving the city direct control over homeless services from street outreach through permanent housing. The plan followed 14 community meetings held between April and July.

Under the model, the city will manage the 34-room Palm Motel at 2020 14th St. and fund 35 beds at The Salvation Army's Bell Shelter. Placements at the Palm Motel are limited to people who became homeless in Santa Monica, have been homeless in the city for three or more years, or frequently use city services.

That overhaul has drawn pushback in the Pico neighborhood. Maria Loya, co-chair of the Pico Neighborhood Association, told the Santa Monica Mirror there is "a historic pattern where Santa Monica has used Pico as a dumping ground."

California voters passed Proposition 36 in 2024, partially reversing Prop 47 by increasing penalties for certain drug and theft crimes. That measure included no funding for treatment or housing. Starting later in summer 2026, the RAND Corporation will conduct unsheltered counts in Santa Monica six times a year, replacing reliance on the annual snapshot.