Record-warm ocean water off Santa Monica could fuel a rare tropical storm headed toward Southern California, weather models suggest.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) flagged a tropical disturbance called EP95 in its Sunday night outlook, giving the broad area of low pressure well offshore of southwestern Mexico a 90% chance of forming into a tropical depression within both 48 hours and seven days.

National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Bryan Lewis told KTLA 5 News that a tropical depression with wind speeds below 38 mph is likely to form first. KTLA weather anchor Kaj Goldberg reported that prediction models show the storm could form off the coast of Baja California by Thursday, Sept. 3.

"This is the disturbance that, if it does form and come together, could make its way right into Southern California," Goldberg said Sunday, Aug. 30.

Goldberg said the system could strengthen into a hurricane by Friday or Saturday before weakening and potentially reaching Southern California as a tropical storm. That scenario could bring heavy rain and possible flooding.

The NHC has not forecast a Southern California landfall. Its outlook describes EP95 moving "west-northwestward to northwestward." The NWS Los Angeles office forecast, issued early Monday, Aug. 31, described "very benign weather" through at least Tuesday with no mention of a tropical threat.

The conditions fueling the disturbance are unusual. Sea surface temperatures off Los Angeles County beaches are running 74 to 76 degrees, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late August, according to NWS data cited by KTLA. Water temperatures at Santa Monica Pier hit a record 76.8 degrees on July 25, the highest July reading ever recorded at the landmark, according to weather tracker Colin McCarthy of US Stormwatch, as reported by SM Observer.

Those warm waters are tied to a strengthening El Niño. The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory in late July, forecasting the pattern will become very strong by fall and persist through winter 2026–27.

Lewis noted that tropical storm landfalls in California are rare. The last one hit in 1939. Tropical Storm Hilary brought significant rainfall to Southern California in August 2023 but had weakened below tropical storm strength before reaching the state.

Separately, Hurricane Karina rapidly intensified to Category 3 on Sunday, Aug. 30, with 125 mph sustained winds, according to NBC News. Karina was about 960 miles west-southwest of Baja California's southern tip and was tracking farther into the open Pacific, posing no direct land threat.

Swells from Karina and other Pacific storms prompted a beach hazards statement through Monday, Aug. 31, for Los Angeles County and Malibu coast beaches, according to the NWS. The agency rated rip current risk as high, with surf of 3 to 6 feet.

No Santa Monica city officials or emergency management agencies have issued statements about the developing tropical system. Residents can monitor updates at nhc.noaa.gov and weather.gov.